Economic growth can be defined as an increase in the capacity of production of goods and services in a country over a given period of time say one year. Economic growth is measured in terms of a percent change in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Gross National Product (GNP). This measure is then corrected for the inflation rate in order to reflect the true percentage change as inflation affects GDP. GDP accounts for all the goods produced by the citizens of a country including those int he diaspora while GNP includes the market value of the goods and services produced by the citizens excluding thosein the diaspora.
The study of Economic growth in Kenya is crucial because there has been rising and falling of the economic growth estimates in Kenya over a long period of time. Therefore, a more serious course of action is required to maintain a stable economic growth of the country by correcting the aspects that are bringing the fall in the growth. I therefore desire to track down the estimates of the economic growth rate in Kenya and probably make a better policy recommendation.
According to IMF,Kenya's economic growth rate in terms of GDP in the year 1980 ,was 5.572%. It stabilized around that figure before dropping to 1.593% in 1983. By the end of 1986, it had again raised to 6.982% the second highest level from then to date. It stabilized around that figure for the next two years before dropping to -1.08% in 1992. This massive drop could be attributed to changes in the political arena from a single party country to multi-party democratic country that took effect in 1992 elections. During this moment, even the inflation rate recorded the highest value ever since.
From the huge drop in 1992, the economy began to boom again since the politics cooled down and it rose up to 4.287% in 1995. Again the political heat began to rise again due to the 1997 elections which led to drop in the economic growth rate to 4.011% in 1996 and 0.22% in 1997. Between 1998 and 2002 term, the growth rate kept on fluctuating widely without any stable growth. In 2002, , the next election year, the growth rate was estimated at 0.299%. During this year elections, there was a change of government from KANU which had been in government since independence in 1963 to NARC-Kenya.
From the year 2003, there was a fast stable economic growth up to 2007 where the highest figure was recorded at 6.993%. This was another election year in which tribal clashes broke out after elections in December causing a massive drop in the growth rate to 1.528% in 2008. From 2009 to 2010, the growth rate has been slow but stable reaching 5.552% in 2010. It has also been reported to have expanded by 0.7% in the first quarter of year 2011.
In conclusion, we find that the economic growth rate of Kenya has been very unstable and unidirectional. It is also highly affected by the politics of the country as the political pillar has been very fragile. Since independence, the highest ever recorded a growth rate was in 1971 rated at 22.2% while the least was in 1970 rated at -4.7% (World Bank 9). In recommendation, Kenyan government should try to separate politics from economic development or come up with better political policies to control the extreme effects that politics causes to the economy.
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